The Washington Post recently named who they think will be the top ten Republican players to watch in the next election. There are ten names on the list (noticeably absent are Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee), but the only two I like right now are Governors Mitt Romney and Bobby Jindal. In fact, that’s a ticket I might vote for if there were an election today. Romney has a ton of executive experience fixing things (especially financial disasters) and Jindal is as sharp as a tack (no to mention young and ethnic, two traits of immense value in today’s politics). This is what the Post had to say about the duo:

Bobby Jindal: There is NO hotter commodity in the Republican party these days than Jindal. Jindal is the rare candidate who both reformers and establishment types find appealing, and as a 37-year-old Indian American he is — literally and figuratively — the sort of new face the party is pining for. While Jindal is hot right now, it’s important to remember that he is the governor of a state with a complex political scene — meaning there will be myriad opportunities for Jindal to falter over the next few months and years.

Mitt Romney: Discount the former Massachusetts governor and presidential candidate at your own peril. Romney has three big things going for him: he is, by almost anyone’s account, an expert on the American economy; he is incredibly ambitious and will work harder than almost anyone to make sure his voice is heard; and he has immense personal wealth and a willingness to spend it. Do his flip-flops on social issues (and his Mormonism) still make social conservatives queasy? You bet. But Romney is in the mix and will aim to stay there.

What do you think? An unstoppable team?

One of the things I’ve always liked about Obama is that he projects a “cool” image without making it look like he’s trying too hard. Contrast that with the wooden, grumpy John McCain that we saw during the election and it’s easy to see why he has such celebrity power. He’s easy to look up to. So why the hell is he playing the ultimate Hollywood groupie by trying to live a real-life episode of the West Wing?

I thought the West Wing was an incredibly well-written and spectacularly acted show. It was absolutely 100% left-leaning - conservative characters were just plain unlikable, as if the writers couldn’t think of a good thing to say about anyone on the right – but it was such a good show I didn’t care. In the finale, the new President elect (played by Jimmy Smits) reaches out to his former opponent (played by the elder statesman of fine actors - Alan Alda) and offers him the Secretary of State post. It was a cool ending, but naming Hillary Clinton as your Secretary of State (which appears imminent) is not a wise move (I wrote about why right here). Regardless, Obama’s connection to the West Wing is much more direct:

West Wing fans stunned by the similarity between the fictitious Matthew Santos and the real-life Barack Obama now know that the resemblance is no coincidence. When the West Wing scriptwriters first devised their fictitious presidential candidate in the late summer of 2004, they modelled him in part on a young Illinois politician - not yet even a US senator - by the name of Barack Obama.

Obama’s pick of Clinton has also breathed some life into Doris Kearns Goodwin’s book, Team of Rivals: The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln. She spoke to Politico:

“Number one, what you’ve got is a president-elect who reads history and values it, and that’s just a great thing. … He called me after he read the book, way back at the beginning of the primary. My cell phone rang, I picked it up and he just said, ‘Hello, this is Barack Obama.’ He talked to me even then about the book, and then throughout the campaign he kept talking about it, how he would want to put people around him who would argue with him, have a range of opinions. His first step seems to be totally in step with that concept, both in terms of possibly appointing Hillary to be secretary of state, talking with John McCain.”

I still say it’s a bad move. I hope I’m wrong.

Evidently, some Somalis have seen too many Johnny Depp movies. Piracy is alive in well off the horn of Africa:

The surge in hijackings came as Saudi Arabia confirmed that a ransom demand had been made for the freeing of the Sirius Star supertanker, seized at the weekend with her crew of 25 and a cargo of oil worth $100 million (£65 million).

That’s some major booty.

Bold prediction: these guys will get cocky and either disrupt the transport of oil in the region or hijack a well-connected American or European ship and all hell will be unleashed on them. Then we won’t hear about pirates for a long time.

Governor Sarah Palin continues to massacre her own image. Watch this video and try to remember that the producer asked her if the background shot was OK. “No worries,” she replied. Also, while you’re watching the turkeys get slaughtered behind her, try to listen to her incoherent, cliché-ridden rambling. It’s as if her answers were written to coincide with the slaughter. Amazing.

A reader asks:

“What, no comment on Hillary for Sec. of State?”

I’m hoping that the drama around this is just drama. Hillary news sells papers and drives web traffic. I for one do not want the Clintons back in the White House in any capacity. This is supposed to be change. Dragging Hillary (a power-hungry, pathological liar who thinks she should be President) and Bubba back into the mix is not good for anyone. Yes, she is smart as hell and has balls of steel. So what? There are plenty of other picks who don’t come with the Clintons’ baggage. Bill Clinton wouldn’t pass muster for an entry level job at Homeland Security. Politico reports:

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) is President-elect Barack Obama’s first choice for secretary of State but his aides are becoming exasperated by the Clinton camp’s pokey response to demands for extensive information about former President Bill Clinton’s finances, according to numerous Democrats involved in the process.

“The sense among the no-drama Obama world is: This is well on its way to winning best Oscar for drama,” said one well-connected Democratic official.

Bubba has made way too much shady money lobbying for foreign interests. By the way - that whole bit about “keep your friends close but your enemies closer” only works in the movies. Remember, the last time the Clinton’s were in the White House they tried to steal the furniture. Do anyone really want them back?

Speaking of lobbying, those guys and gals on K Street are real scumbags, right? Not exactly – don’t hate the players, hate the game. Tim Carney (a Washington insider with lots of experience in these matters) wrote a great piece about lobbying right here (complete with some Clinton examples). He concludes:

Don’t get me wrong: some of my best friends are lobbyists. More importantly, lobbying, at its heart, is nothing more than free speech. In fact, the right to petition one’s government is arguably the most important protection in the First Amendment. Efforts to “reform” lobbying—like efforts to “reform” campaign finance—usually end up restricting speech while not fixing any corruption.

The only way to end these conflicts of interest and tales of corruption would be to limit the government’s control over our lives and our money—the very free-market policies that get derided as “excessive capitalism” by the big-government types. With neither party really interested in such a reform, it doesn’t look like the game will get cleaned up any time soon, but at least we’ll keep getting good stories.

I met Howard Dean several times between 1991 and 1993 when he was Governor of Vermont and I was a cadet at Norwich University. I even had the opportunity to chat on-on-one with him for about a half hour once over lunch. During each encounter he came off as a warm, intelligent leader, legitimately concerned with the issues that my classmates and me would encounter after graduation. In short, I liked him and put him squarely in the “good guy” category.” Then he ran for president in 2004 and showed the world his nuttiness. I quickly moved him from the “good guy” category and onto the “loud, angry, fringe politician” list (see famous “scream” video below).

Amazingly, the Democratic Party decided that he was the best man to chair the Democratic National Committee and - if judged purely by election results - he’s done pretty well. The Democratic Party is stronger than ever and, according to him, has room in it for just about everybody. Politico reports:

Dean said that the Democratic Party was now a big-tent party. “We didn’t have just one message,” Dean said, speaking of those Democrats who ran for Congress and other positions. “You could be pro-life, pro-choice, a conservative and get supported and get resources.”

Throughout his term as DNC chairman, Dean also tried to open a dialogue with people who rarely voted Democratic. “We began a dialogue with evangelical Christians, especially those under 35, and I think it paid off,” Dean said. “We noticed from all data we were collecting that they were worried about the things Democrats are worried about: poverty, climate change, Darfur. And now they don’t have to feel that just because a Republican didn’t win they don’t have a friend in the White House.”

“We want to put the old politics of division aside,” Dean said, “and focus on the new politics of unity.”

I’m skeptical. Dean is one of the most ardent partisans I’ve ever seen and rarely (if ever) has a good thing to say about conservatives. My guess is that they can have a spot under the tent as long as they don’t make too much noise.

* Sidenote: Some on the far right continue to deny the solid Obama win we witnessed on November 4th. Denial is a killer. The world will continue to spin and life will go on whether the GOP faithful get their stuff together and regroup or not. Stop whining and get busy giving people like me a reason to vote for you again. And look on the bright side, according to longtime conservative pundit and speechwriter extraordinaire Peggy Noonan:

There is joy to be had in being out of power. You don’t have to defend stupid decisions anymore.

The day after the election I took the day off. The point was to disconnect and attempt to regain some normalcy in my life after blogging almost exclusively about the election for almost a year. I checked email only once and resisted the urge to surf through the blogs that make up my daily fix (scroll down on the right hand side to see them). It felt good. Ironically, I used the free time to buy and activate my first BlackBerry so I’d never be disconnected again! Life has not been the same.

My wife wasn’t crazy about the idea until I explained that I wanted one so I could be more productive and organized which would result in me having more time to spend with her. So far it’s been true - the three of us go everywhere together! President-elect Obama’s relationship with his BlackBerry during the campaign also made headlines but, unfortunately for him, the two are about to be legally separated. Sad, isn’t it? The New York Times reports:

But before he arrives at the White House, he will probably be forced to sign off. In addition to concerns about e-mail security, he faces the Presidential Records Act, which puts his correspondence in the official record and ultimately up for public review, and the threat of subpoenas. A decision has not been made on whether he could become the first e-mailing president, but aides said that seemed doubtful.

For all the perquisites and power afforded the president, the chief executive of the United States is essentially deprived by law and by culture of some of the very tools that other chief executives depend on to survive and to thrive. Mr. Obama, however, seems intent on pulling the office at least partly into the 21st century on that score; aides said he hopes to have a laptop computer on his desk in the Oval Office, making him the first American president to do so.

As for me, you can have my BlackBerry when you pry it from my cold, dead fingers. I ain’t going back.

Have you seen this man? This one-eyed, ethnic Pashtun’s name is Mullah Mohammed Omar. He’s the leader of Afghanistan’s notorious Taliban and a close accomplice of Osama Bin Laden (whose head I look forward to seeing stuffed and mounted on President Obama’s wall in the oval office in the very near future). Very little was known about Omar even before he went into hiding shortly after the attacks of September 11th, 2001, but most experts agree that he’s probably hiding out somewhere in Pakistan’s tribal region - the real front in the war on terrorism.

The conflict in Afghanistan, with its complex blend of ethnicities, religious sects, and divergent interests is an extremely difficult scenario to fully understand. Thankfully, we have warrior-scholars like Australian David Killcullen (Colonel, Ph.D. in Anthropology, insurgency and terrorism expert) to help clarify things for us. Some of his papers were required reading for me in grad school. The New Yorker recently interviewed him. It’s a short piece and well worth the time for anyone who wants to understand what’s happening on the ground in Afghanistan. Here are his recommendations to President-elect Obama:

First, the draw-down in Iraq needs to be conditions-based and needs to recognize how fragile our gains there have been, and our moral obligation to Iraqis who have trusted us. As I said, we don’t want to un-bog ourselves from Iraq only to get bogged in Afghanistan while Iraq turns bad again. Second, our priorities in Afghanistan should be security, governance, and dealing with the Pakistan safe haven—and we may not necessarily need that many more combat troops to do so. Third, the Afghan elections of September 2009 are a key milestone—we can’t just muddle through, and the key problem is political: delivering effective and legitimate governance that meets Afghans’ needs. And finally, most importantly, this is a wartime transition and we can’t afford the normal nine-month hiatus while we put the new Administration in place: the war in Afghanistan will be won or lost in the next fighting season, i.e. by the time of the September elections.

The situation in Afghanistan is dire. But the war is winnable. We need to focus our attention on the problem, and think before acting. But we need to think fast, and our actions need to involve a major change of direction, focussing on securing the population rather than chasing the enemy, and delivering effective legitimate governance to the people, bottom-up, at the local level. Do that, do it fast, and we stand an excellent chance of turning things around.

Hopefully Obama will be more open to the advice of scholars and experts than President Bush was prior to his foray into Middle East conflict. For an absolutely fantastic overview of Islamic terrorism, see Michael Scheuer’s Imperial Hubris. It’s a sobering look at myth versus reality in the war on terror, backed up by over twenty years of experience heading the CIA desk responsible for all issues related to Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda.

Imperial Hubris: Why the West is Losing the War on Terror

Whatever your opinion of Bush there’s no doubting the fact that the U.S. has not experienced another major terrorist attack since September 11th. And while many of his tactics have been controversial (to say the least), the overwhelming majority of Americans are pretty happy not being blown up and don’t really care what measures are taken to achieve that goal. In spite of that, it’s also safe to say that many of us will not be entirely happy until Osama Bin Laden is confirmed dead-as-a-door-nail or captured (preferably the former). CIA Director Michael Hayden weighed in recently on OBL’s status:

Without directly referring to the CIA’s offensive blitz of unmanned missile attacks in the tribal areas of Pakistan, the CIA boss said the US had successfully isolated the al Qaeda leader bin Laden, referring to him in the present tense.
“He appears to be largely isolated from the day-to-day operations of the organization he leads,” Hayden said in a speech delivered to the Atlantic Council in Washington.
Hayden said the failure to kill or capture bin Laden in the seven years since the 9/11 attacks, could be explained by the “rugged and inaccessible” terrain of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border area and “the fact that bin Laden has worked to avoid detection.”

OBL can only run and hide for so long. Bold prediction - he’s confirmed dead or captured during the first year of the Obama administration.

Remember when Obama pledged to accept public money for the presidential campaign and then reneged on it? According to Politico, that not only gave him a serious money advantage in the election, it will also spare him an audit by the Federal Election Commission:

The Federal Election Commission is unlikely to conduct a potentially embarrassing audit of how Barack Obama raised and spent his presidential campaign’s record-shattering windfall, despite allegations of questionable donations and accounting that had the McCain campaign crying foul.

Adding insult to injury for Republicans: The FEC is obligated to complete a rigorous audit of McCain’s campaign coffers, which will take months, if not years, and cost McCain millions of dollars to defend.

Mccain is said to have put away over $9 million to pay for the process (lawyers, etc). Seems backwards, no? I’d much rather get a closer look at Obama’s fundraising and expenditures.

It used to be that illicit drug use and sexual trysts would disqualify you from major political positions (although at time they both seem mandatory). Now we can add emails, blog posts, text messages and
diaries to the list. Welcome to the 21st Century. The following disclosures are required from anyone seeking a major position in the Obama administration:

I guess I’ll go ahead now and add “politician” to the list of things I will never be:

Politician
NBA Player
Astronaut
Porn Star
Priest

Al Gore’s camp recently signaled to the incoming Obama administration that he is not interested in the proposed Climate Czar position:

“Former Vice President Gore does not intend to seek or accept any formal position in government,” Gore spokeswoman Kalee Kreider said. “He feels very strong right now that the best thing for him to do is to build support for the bold changes that we have to make to solve the climate crisis.”

Thank God. The last thing we need is more bloated government. (Get it? Bloated?)

Sara Palin won’t go away and recently decided to give her very first press conference. My favorite part:

Asked why she chose to hold her first formal news conference now, she replied, “The campaign is over.”

Well, yeah, because now that the election is over it’s the perfect time to give a press conference. You see the logic, right? The more she talks the worse McCain looks for choosing her after only meeting her once and doing zero vetting. As one of my readers commented in a previous post - the U.S. has dodged a bullet.

I recently wrote about Georgia Congressman Paul Broun’s moronic comments comparing Obama to Adolf Hitler. Well, it turns out that he’s sorry now:

“The point I tried to make is that he is extremely liberal, he has promoted a lot of socialistic ideas, and it just makes me concerned.”

Then why didn’t you just say that, Congressman?

As always, comments and criticism are welcome.

See you next week.

President-Elect Obama has voiced his support for a volunteer civilian national security force to help the U.S. meet its long term objectives. Progressive? Gutsy? Groundbreaking? Not really, George Bush supported the same thing in his 2007 State of the Union speech. But that didn’t stop Republican Congressman Paul Broun of Georgia from comparing Obama to monsters like Adolf Hitler. The following words slithered out of his ignorant mouth just a few days ago:

“That’s exactly what Hitler did in Nazi Germany and it’s exactly what the Soviet Union did,” Broun said. “When he’s proposing to have a national security force that’s answering to him, that is as strong as the U.S. military, he’s showing me signs of being Marxist…We can’t be lulled into complacency,” Broun said. “You have to remember that Adolf Hitler was elected in a democratic Germany. I’m not comparing him to Adolf Hitler. What I’m saying is there is the potential of going down that road.”

It’s impossible to know if he actually believes this garbage or if he’s just playing to his base. Regardless, I can’t help wonder if he had the same sinking feeling when the Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld trio decided it was a good idea to spy on its own citizens, deny due process to anyone they deemed a national security threat, and authorized torture techniques identical to those used in Stalin’s gulags. Nah. Questioning those policies would be un-American! It’s much easier to just go with the crowd. Besides, those policies were for the “common good”, right Congressman?

If you’ve ever watched a movie about about any President of the United States (POTUS) you already know that the U.S. Secret Service uses code names for the President, Vice President and their families (the code names are actually assigned by the White House Communications agency.) Such names are used in an attempt to help keep schedules and locations confidential, but also for convenience. The family gets to choose the letter that they want their names to begin with and the WHCA does the rest. Do you know what Obama’s code name is?

Renegade.

What about Michelle Obama, the next First Lady of the United States (FLOTUS)?

Renaissance.

See if you can match the following presidents with their proper names?

The Presidents:
George W. Bush
Ronald Reagan
Bill Clinton
Jimmy Carter

Code Names:
“Deacon”
“Tumbler”
“Eagle”
“Rawhide”

Click here for the answers.

Those names seem appropriate to me. What about you? What would you change them to if you could?

The 2008 U.S. Presidential Elections are over and Barack Obama has won. His first order of business was to try and lower the stratospheric expectations of his presidency and he did so in his acceptance speech. The following statements stuck out like a sore thumb to me:

The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even one term, but America – I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you – we as a people will get there…..and we know that government can’t solve every problem.

Is it me or did he immediately start campaigning for 2012? Regardless, President-Elect Obama now has everything he wanted – the White House and a majority in both houses. What’s that they say about being careful what you ask for?

Obama won this election decisively. However, conservatives like Robert Novak are claiming that the victory was not decisive enough to be called a mandate. Whatever. McCain mentioned in his concession speech that not only had the American people spoken, but they had “spoken clearly.” Ed Morrissey does an even better job of addressing the issue right here:

In the first place, talk of “mandates” is, and always has been, irrelevant. What matters is whether the winning candidate has enough votes to move most of their agenda through Congress — and Obama clearly does. He may not have enough votes in the Senate to keep Republicans from blocking everything, but he has enough for all but the most radical measures to pass.

Besides, as Jazz Shaw points out, Novak declared 2004 a “mandate” for George Bush. In that election, Bush won fewer states, had a narrower popular-vote margin, and got a smaller Senate majority than the Democrats won last night. Obama broke through the red/blue line that had dominated national politics over the past eight years. If we’re talking mandates, that seems pretty clear.

Anyway, Politico immediately launched a new blog that I think is pretty cool (if not a bit stalkerish.) Politico 44 (Obama is the 44th POTUS) is an up to the minute diary/blog of the Obama administration that has already begun tracking his every move. For example, he arrived home today at 5:48PM EDT and tomorrow afternoon at 1:30PM EDT he’ll give his first press conference as President-Elect after he meets with his economic advisors.

The Sarah Palin phenomenon continues to baffle me. I asked several weeks ago if I was being too hard on her, but now that the campaign is over and the unfiltered (to use a Palin word) truth is starting to come out –it looks as if she’s much more ignorant than I had ever imagined. This video from Fox News (the official channel of the GOP) says enough about her utter lack of common knowledge, but Newsweek has even more about how strange this woman is, including:

At the GOP…One night, Steve Schmidt and Mark Salter went to her hotel room to brief her. After a minute, Palin sailed into the room wearing nothing but a towel, with another on her wet hair. She told them to chat with her laconic husband, Todd. “I’ll be just a minute,” she said.

Yes, I know. She’s hot. But I’d prefer a VP with a clue.

Amazingly, there are still several Kool-Aid drinkers out there who remain mesmerized by Palin. Michael Ledeen of the National Review Online writes:

The continued trashing of Sarah Palin — IMHO the most qualified and by far the most exciting candidate of the four — is very disappointing, and the rash of unseemly whining from the McCain camp just shows once again why so many of us were depressed when he won the nomination.

The “most qualified of the four?” Wow. Trust me, we have not heard the last of the Palin stories from McCain staffers – aptly named “Lipstick Confessions” by the uber-liberal bloggers at the DailyKos.

The 2008 presidential race will not be forgotten and I had an absolute blast blogging about it. I especially appreciate the growing readership of RandallHMiller.com that joined me in the process. From my daily posts to live-blogging the debates and election night itself I’ve never felt alone. Instead, I’ve felt a momentum and enthusiasm (not to be confused with constant agreement) that makes me look forward to this next phase with great anticipation - and for that I am grateful.

A few weeks ago I asked if I had been too tough on Sarah Palin. I’ve also expressed several times in the past few months how much I was looking forward to the end of this election cycle and the information that would undoubtedly flow from for McCain staffers. Well, the wait is over. Watch this video. It seems that Palin is even more ignorant than I imagined.

This Newsweek article is also worth checking out. They write:

NEWSWEEK has also learned that Palin’s shopping spree at high-end department stores was more extensive than previously reported. While publicly supporting Palin, McCain’s top advisers privately fumed at what they regarded as her outrageous profligacy. One senior aide said that Nicolle Wallace had told Palin to buy three suits for the convention and hire a stylist. But instead, the vice presidential nominee began buying for herself and her family—clothes and accessories from top stores such as Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus.

According to two knowledgeable sources, a vast majority of the clothes were bought by a wealthy donor, who was shocked when he got the bill. Palin also used low-level staffers to buy some of the clothes on their credit cards. The McCain campaign found out last week when the aides sought reimbursement. One aide estimated that she spent “tens of thousands” more than the reported $150,000, and that $20,000 to $40,000 went to buy clothes for her husband. Some articles of clothing have apparently been lost. An angry aide characterized the shopping spree as “Wasilla hillbillies looting Neiman Marcus from coast to coast,” and said the truth will eventually come out when the Republican Party audits its books.

It’s time to let Obama’s victory sink in and for the final votes to be tallied (there are also several Senate and U.S. House of Representatives seats still up in the air.) I won’t be posting at all today, but will be back in the saddle tomorrow (unless, of course, something extraordinary happens.)

RHM:
Any predictions?

Daniel:
I believe Obama will win, getting close to 300 electoral votes. A landslide is possible, but not likely. Supreme Court appointees are my main concern, as I don’t believe the economy will allow the next president to accomplish much else. And I’d like a slight shift to the left more than one to the right. I think Hillary cut a deal to become one of Obama’s Supremes, which, in a rock ‘n roll context, is amusing.

RHM:
Which way do you think your home state of Florida will go this time? Will the outcome affect your 2010 campaign for the U.S. House of Representatives at all?

Daniel:
Florida will go for Obama, though it may be close. Either way, I Just hope we don’t embarrass ourselves like in 2000. Here in District 14, Connie Mack (R) should get re-elected. If the black vote is strong for Obama, as it is predicted, and Obama wins, they may become more interested in voting local politics - something that, historically, doesn’t happen - and still be riding the change wave. And Connie Mack is not considered a friend. I have a year yet to fully commit, though.

RHM:
Bob Barr - what the hell happened? Am I alone thinking he missed a historic opportunity? Are you still glad you bowed out of the race and endorsed him?

Daniel:
Bob Barr thought he was one of the big dogs, but couldn’t run with them. His campaign was mostly reactionary, rarely proactive. He got a lot of media, but used much of it to belittle Obama and McCain, mostly McCain. Plus, he raised barely over a million dollars. And after the group hissy fit over the press conference, Ron Paul basically said “fuck you” to Barr by endorsing Baldwin of the Constitutional Party (which also left many Paul supporters cold). And Bob certainly lacks warmth, to put it mildly. In the final analysis, however, Bob will garner more votes than any other LP presidential candidate in history, which means a lot. And, yes, I’m still glad I did what I did, notwithstanding a true disappointment in how Bob and Russ ran the campaign (and Wayne ran his). Because any other candidate would have killed the Libertarian Party.

RHM:
What happens to Sarah Palin after the election?

Daniel:
Depends. Bill Kristol and other noecons are still enthralled with Palin, and believe she’ll lead the party in 2012. There’s no denying she excited the base, but that base may not be enough to count on down the road. With a McCain loss, Kristol and his crowd, along with the religious right, will lose influence and credibility - and Palin will become a presidential election footnote (ala Ferraro). She’ll still be on the scene, but will either run for re-election in moose country or land on talk radio. I think she’s peaked, politically. But, hey, our attention spans aren’t getting any longer…

Tuesday, November 4th - 12:00PM Atlantic Time
The fat lady has sung. Congrats to Obama.

Tuesday, November 4th - 11:35PM Atlantic Time
The Massachusetts ballot initiative to decriminalize marijuana possession looks like it will pass easily. Interesting.

Tuesday, November 4th - 10:45PM Atlantic Time
Now they’re talking about impossible scenarios. All done. The mood on Fox News is somber, the others can barely contain themselves. I look forward to the speeches - especially McCain’s.

Tuesday, November 4th - 10:35PM Atlantic Time
Thank you, Buckeyes! Yes, I’m the first to “officially” call it. I’m in a gambling mood. UPDATED: Looks like I wasn’t.

Tuesday, November 4th - 10:25PM Atlantic Time
I’ve tried to be “Fair and Balanced” and follow Fox News‘ projections as well but, as was mentioned by JD in the comments, their site has been horrendous today. I’m sticking with CNN and the very cautious Politico.

Tuesday, November 4th - 10:05PM Atlantic Time
Obama 174 v. McCain 79 according to CNN. This will all be over soon.

Tuesday, November 4th - 9:55PM Atlantic Time
It’s funny to see how safe most of the media outlets are trying to play it. After the exit poll debacle in 2004 and premature-projected wins in 2000 nobody wants to be left looking like idiots. Slow and cautious.

Tuesday, November 4th - 9:50PM Atlantic Time
Kay Hagan (D) has unseated Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) in North Carolina, AP reports.

Tuesday, November 4th - 9:45PM Atlantic Time
They’re already drunk in Ireland?

Supporters of US Democratic presidential candidate and Illinois Senator Barack Obama drink as they watch election results from Ollies Hayes Pub on November 4, 2008 in Moneygall, Co Limerick, in Ireland. Historians have unearthed records showing Obama’s maternal ancestors lived, worked, married and had children in the Moneygall area more than 150 years ago. Fulmuth Kearney, who is Obama’s third great-grandfather, left Moneygall for New York in 1850 to eventually settle in Ohio.

Tuesday, November 4th - 9:35PM Atlantic Time
Obama wins Pennsylvania (the “Biden Effect” perhaps?) Cue the fat lady.

Tuesday, November 4th - 9:25PM Atlantic Time
Comrade Castro weighs in with his thoughts on Obama:

“He’s without a doubt more intelligent, refined and even- handed than his Republican adversary,” Castro wrote in a “reflection,” which was sent via e-mail. “McCain is old, belligerent, uncultivated, unintelligent and in poor health.”

Good thing he didn’t speak up earlier. It might have had the same effect as Cheney’s recent glowing endorsement of McCain.

Tuesday, November 4th - 9:20PM Atlantic Time
Interesting. With everybody except Sean Hannity predicting an Obama win, the stock market saw the biggest election day rally since 1984 today. That’s always a good thing.

Tuesday, November 4th - 9:05PM Atlantic Time
Obama carries Massachusetts (my legal residence since 1982) - not exactly a shocker.

Will he carry my birth state of Ohio? Go Buckeyes!

Tuesday, November 4th - 7:35PM Atlantic Time
Mr. Leo Perez Minaya (aka Don Leo), president of Democrats Abroad in the Dominican Republic, comments via telephone:

“Obama wins with 320 Electoral Votes vs. 218 for John McCain…Obama is the only candidate who can fix the US economy. which will then resonate in the Dominican economy.”

Let’s hope he’s right on both predictions.

(Hat-tip to his assistant Eduardo Berrido)

Tuesday, November 4th - 7:10PM Atlantic Time
I haven’t seen any exit polls worth mentioning yet, but the rumblings I am hearing and seeing are that this could be pretty big for Obama. Then again, exit polls are pretty much bullshit. FYI: I am going to rely mostly on Politico for my numbers tonight. It’s one stop shopping if you want numbers on each individual state (including Senate and U.S. Representative Seats).

Tuesday, November 4th - 12:55PM Atlantic Time
I’ve received a few emails about numbers. The first numbers you’ll see will be exit polls, but they won’t start rolling in until late this afternoon. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com explains why we should ignore them. Actual numbers won’t start rolling in until the polls close (7PM is the earliest in some states.)

Tuesday, November 4th - 12:25PM Atlantic Time
A reader via Twitter:

Did you vote? How?

Yes, I voted two weeks ago via absentee ballot (the same way I did when I was in the military.) It’s very easy but you have to stay on top of your town hall to make sure the ballot is mailed out to you with plenty of time to get it back to them. If they don’t you can run into problems like this.

Tuesday, November 4th - 11:10AM Atlantic Time
Former Libertarian Presidential Candidate Daniel Williams weighs in via email:

“I believe Obama will win, getting close to 300 electoral votes. A landslide is possible, but not likely. Supreme Court appointees are my main concern, as I don’t believe the economy will allow the next president to accomplish much else. And I’d like a slight shift to the left more than one to the right. I think Hillary cut a deal to become one of Obama’s Supremes, which, in a rock ‘n roll context, is amusing.”

To see the rest of our conversation go here. Thanks, Daniel.

Tuesday, November 4th - 9:40AM Atlantic Time
Good morning. Karl Rove has officially thrown in the towel and predicts an Obama landslide of 338-200.

Monday, November 3rd - 8:00PM Atlantic Time
Matt Drudge’s blog has been disconnected from reality lately. Now he’s claiming that Obama is giving McCain “the finger” in this video. And no, he still hasn’t replied to my email.

Monday, November 3rd - 6:45PM Atlantic Time
That didn’t take long:

“May he be reunited with her very soon!”

A comment from Michelle Malkin’s blog about the passing of Obama’s grandmother. Classy, no?

Monday, November 3rd - 6:10PM Atlantic Time
Obama’s grandmother passed away today in Hawaii. Horrible. Just horrible. But not as bad as what the far right wing is sure to say about it. Standby.

Monday, November 3rd - 5:30PM Atlantic Time
This is it - the moment we’ve all been waiting for. Election day 2008 is finally upon us and, if you’re like me, you’re dying to just get it over with. A two year campaign is way too long. I am physically tired from all of this and all I do is sit on my butt and blog about it. Can you imagine how the candidates feel by now? Hats off to both of them for remaining on their feet. I’m not sure I could do it. Three to five states per day, multiple speeches, dinners, breakfasts, TV/radio/internet appearances that never end and having every little mistake amplified as if you botched the Bay of Pigs invasion. You gotta want it and both of these guys clearly do. Let’s vote.

I’ll be posting throughout the day right here on this thread like I did for the debates and I want to hear you! So, feel free to come here with your comments, questions, complaints, links and general observations on what’s happening. You can reach me via a number of different ways:

1) Comment directly on this thread (feel free to start now).
2) Email me directly through the contact tab.
3) Twitter
4) Facebook
5) My super-secret Skype account

My prediction is that we are about to see a landslide. McCain will struggle to break 200 electoral votes and Obama will also win the popular vote by 5% or more. What about you?

Leonel Fernandez (President of the Dominican Republic) recently sent the Dominican congress a list of over 100 changes he’d like to make to the constitution. Here’s how a UN representative characterizes those proposed reforms (from DR1):

Dr. Cristobal Rodriguez, a constitutional specialist with the United Nations Development Fund (UNDP), says the proposed constitutional reform would give the Dominican President “unlimited power” adding that the personal management of the state’s resources by the President, as stipulated by the reform, could create a bureaucracy and a culture of potent clientilism.

Scary? A little bit, but it’s not over yet. Hopefully enough members of congress will see the danger and act accordingly. Then again, many of those people had to be taught to eat with utensils after they were elected.

The DR recently hosted a technology conference attended by dozens of countries and companies looking to show off new technological products. As usual, Leonel was there to smile wide for the cameras and put on a show. According to DR1:

President Leonel Fernandez says that the country has definitely started on the road to modernization and that it is currently entering the transition phase towards a model of knowledge based on science, technology and the efforts of a new productive system.

“There was a lot of skepticism about the construction of the cyber-park, and we were told that instead of spending resources on a technology park, we should concentrate on reducing poverty”. He added that the way to eliminate poverty and push the country towards development is precisely with technology parks of this type.

The President cut the ceremonial tape with a laser beam…

Is this guy serious? The best way to fight poverty is through technology parks? We have millions of people who cannot read or write. Now we’re going to magically turn them into computer programmers and web entrepreneurs? Although he’s been president for 8 of the past 12 years, poverty has increased and the quality of education has become progressively worse. Cutting the ribbon with a laser and declaring his decision to build a cyber park a success is the Dominican equivalent of Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” stunt back in 2003. Both were premature (and needless to say insulting) declarations of success. Reality tells a much different story.

Edited 7:35PM EDT to include:

Here’s Drudge’s latest headline:

Unbelievable. Do they really see this as an October surprise? Let’s vote and get this shit over with.

—

The Drudge Report has been my homepage for over a decade. Why? Because regardless of what I think of him the headlines and stories he chooses to push typically drive the conversation. But if you’ve been following him over the past month or so you’d think he lives in a parallel universe. Here’s a screen shot from last night:

Has Drudge lost his mind or has he always been this much of a shill? It’s bad enough that he pushed the hell out of the Ashley Todd story (McCain supporter who claimed to be attacked by a black man who then carved a “B” into her face only to find out a day later that she made it up), but now he’s trying to create the impression that McCain is not in the midst of a comeback – he’s actually winning! His tactics have already been smacked down several times here, here, and here. But once Drudge posts a headline it becomes gospel for the many people who use his blog as their primary source of news.

Here’s another example. Yesterday he pushed a headline that Dallas Morning News reporters were booted off Obama’s campaign plane because their editorial board had endorsed McCain. Here’s clarification from the Dallas Morning News itself:

“…we don’t have evidence that the newspaper’s endorsement of Sen. McCain had any bearing on the campaign’s decision to boot us from the plane,” Rusak added, noting their news reporters had no knowledge of the paper’s McCain endorsement. “We think the Obama campaign’s decision is to some degree more a function of limited seats, and while we’re a large regional newspaper, we’re not national and we’re not in a swing state.”

Rusak noted that while the News continues to protest the decision, the paper has encountered similar issues periodically while traveling with the McCain campaign.

As of 9:00AM EDT the headline remains on the Drudge Report.

Here’s my email to Drudge. I don’t expect to hear back:

Dear Mr. Drudge,

I’ve used your website as one of my primary news sources for over ten years. In general, I have found it useful. However, in the past month or so your headlines have ranged from biased to completely absurd.

For example, you ran a headline yesterday that Dallas Morning News reporters had been booted off the Obama campaign’s claim because the paper endorsed Senator McCain for President. This report has been rebuked by the Dallas Morning News itself and yet you continue to run the headline. I could also mention numerous misleading headlines regarding national polls, but Nate Silver has already done so repeatedly on www.fivethirtyeight.com. Perhaps the most disturbing headline this week was your knee-jerk coverage of Ashley Todd’s “attack.” Need I go on?

Matt, I understand that as a life-long nerd and 42 year old virgin it’s difficult to see someone as cool as Obama do so well so quickly. I’ve no doubt that your childhood contained countless wedgies, swirlies, wet-willies and ear-flicks at the hands of the “cool kids.” Try to forget all of the times your lunch money was stolen and you were tossed in lockers. Remember, to err is human, to forgive is divine.

Warm regards from the sunny Caribbean,

RHM
www.RandallHMiller.com

I voted last week via absentee ballot in my 5th presidential election. I voted for Barack Obama. I voted for him not because I think he is the be-all and end-all of presidential politics, but because I agree with much of what he has to say. In spite of that, it wasn’t my agreements with Obama that pulled me over to his side – it was the negativity and hatred on the McCain side that pushed me away.

Politics can be a dirty, ugly game and it’s not for the faint of heart. But for me, the McCain/Palin camp crossed the line by fanning the flames of hatred and equating Obama with America’s mortal enemies. Frankly, I expected more from a third generation Naval Academy Graduate, decorated veteran, and 26 year member of congress. Then I got to thinking – some of this stuff sounds familiar.

Flashback to 1992 – Bush (41) v. Governor Bill Clinton

Gwen Ifill wrote:

In a television interview on Wednesday night, President Bush criticized the Democratic Presidential nominee for participating in rallies opposing United States involvement in Vietnam while he was studying abroad. Other Republicans have also raised questions about Mr. Clinton’s travel to the Soviet Union and attempted to paint him as a Communist sympathizer.

Bill Clinton a communist sympathizer? Not even close. A womanizer who has trouble controlling himself? An egomaniac? A liar? Yes. But an enemy of the United States - no way.

But the ridiculous accusations didn’t stop there:

Correspondent J.R. Nyquist, writing in World Net Daily, recounts how he was told in 1982, when he was still in college, that Bill Clinton was picked to be a “stealth” Marxist President.

Sound familiar yet? Read on:

Bill Clinton’s State of the Union speech reveals a socialist who wants to take away your freedom. Bill’s speech drips with his contempt of our free market economic system. Bill’s speech is a declaration of war against America’s heritage.

Am I the only one spotting a trend here? When the GOP is in trouble (like they were in 1992 and like they are now) they go as low as they possibly can. If you’re not American you have to understand something about us when it comes to patriotism – you’d rather be labeled a pedophile than a traitor. Treason is an offense punishable by death and - if there is a hell – the hot-spots are reserved for traitors.

Barack Obama is not a traitor. A leftist? You betcha. A “smooth talker?” Absolutely. But whether or not his words are simply populist rhetoric remains to be seen. Regardless, he loves our country just as much as John McCain. Perhaps more because he’s lived the American dream. Obama was not issued an acceptance letter to the U.S. Naval Academy with his birth certificate (Yes, Obama has a birth certificate.) Obama always had to earn his spot and – let’s face it – that’s not always easy for a black man in America. But he did it with humility, class, and a first-class temperament – the same attributes that will make him the 44th President of the United States.

Barack Obama is no more a socialist than Bush is a fascist. Sure, universal healthcare is arguably a socialist-type policy, but 8 years of Bush has given us much more ammunition to play the fascist card and yet most of us don’t because it’s just not true.

Perhaps as frustrating as the morose accusations coming from the McCain/Palin campaign is the ridiculous notion that this election is close or “tightening.” It ain’t. Just look here and here and remember that presidential elections are determined by states – not the national polls that glorified bloggers like Drudge have been pushing.

My prediction – McCain struggles to break 200 electoral votes. What do you think?

Halloween Humor

So, if Obama isn’t the Socialist candidate for president then who is? Watch this Stephen Colbert clip to find out and thanks for reading.

I recently learned that one of our readers is in the mortgage business. Specifically, he buys up bad mortgages (No, that’s not him in the picture). I joked that such a job must be similar to that of an undertaker during the bubonic plague considering the current housing crisis in the U.S. An interesting discussion ensued and with his permission I’m going to share that conversation with you. It’s nice to know that I have such experts in my readership.

Greg Palmer (GPalmer) is President & CFO of Dreambuilder Investments LLC, a private mortgage investment company which specializes in the acquisition, management and liquidation of defaulted residential mortgages nationwide. He has a B.A. in Philosophy from Union College and an M.B.A. from Northeastern.

RHM: Are the horror stories real? Are people being thrown out of their homes in droves or is it a small percentage of overall home owners who are in trouble?

GPalmer: The horror stories are real, but not nearly as widespread as the media would have you believe. It’s bad… but, it’s not every other house on your street. To put some numbers to it the Mortgage Banker’s Association reported that for Q2 2008 the delinquency rate was 6.41% (loans at least one payment late, but not loans in foreclosure), 2.75% of all loans were in the process of foreclosure, and foreclosure starts were 1.08%…. all records. When you start looking at loan types, classes, states etc. there are some glaring issues.

RHM: You mentioned that you work directly with home owners. Do you seek out those who are in trouble or do they typically find you?

GPalmer: We seek them out. Typically, we’ll buy an entire pool of loans from a bank, then systematically work through them seeking out homeowners to work out a solution. Those that are cooperative and responsible, we bend over backwards to help.

RHM: How about a prediction: will home values stabilize or continue to plummet?

GPalmer: I see home values continuing to drop for another 12-18 mos. Based on everything I’ve read, and our company’s real life experience, there aren’t enough buyers in the market that can get financing. Credit is super tight, people who are in a home are likely upside down and can’t get out, so you’re left with first time homebuyers, investors, and the rare bird that hasn’t tapped the equity in their homes during the boom and has a very low, or no mortgage. So, properties aren’t selling, and we’re adding to the inventory every month… so, prices will continue to drop.

RHM: Is some ways isn’t this crisis a much needed market correction for home values and too-good-to-be-true credit?

GPalmer: Absolutely. The two are inextricably linked. Values soared because of loose lending standards and lack of accountability in how the mortgage business works. The over extension of credit allowed more people to qualify for more and more expensive homes. Artificially induced demand drove up prices based on bad lending practices.

RHM: “Dreambuilder Investments, LLC is a mortgage resolution and investment company bringing liquidity, efficiency and humanity to distressed markets.” Liquidity and efficiency are self-explanatory concepts in the business world. What about “humanity?” Can you give us a glimpse into why Dreambuilder sees its role as humanitarian?

GPalmer: Humanity in that we treat every homeowner with decency and respect. We don’t treat them as raw materials to be turned into a final product. We are flexible and empathetic to their circumstances and we offer alternatives to them otherwise unavailable. It’s not just making money.. but, how we make it and the impact we can have on the lives of the people we deal with….

It’s no bullshit… it’s how we work, and it just also happens to be the right business objective.

Thanks, Greg.

There’s been a lot of talk this election cycle about bias in the blogosphere and the so-called mainstream media. And while some of it is a mixture of paranoia and sore-losing, the majority of the criticism has merit. In fact, let’s not kid each other, the mainstream media - with the exception of Fox News - consistently campaigns for the Democratic Party. This has always bothered me.

However, since this is the first time I’ve ever voted for a Democrat in a major election I have to say I love it! It feels great. If I hear or see criticism of my candidate I simply turn of Fox News or switch the channel. Done.

Politico has taken some hits from readers this cycle but stands firm in their own defense of “it ain’t us…it’s because McCain’s really is this bad.” Harris and Vandehei write:

There have been moments in the general election when the one-sidedness of our site — when nearly every story was some variation on how poorly McCain was doing or how well Barack Obama was faring — has made us cringe.

As it happens, McCain’s campaign is going quite poorly and Obama’s is going well. Imposing artificial balance on this reality would be a bias of its own.

Is that an excuse? Should reporters/bloggers go out of their way to be “balanced” even when one side sucks so bad? Or does it depend on whether the individual writers package themselves as reporters or merely commentators on the passing scene?

When I saw this picture over on Politico I almost choked on my sandwich.

I just imagine someone in the crowd saying “What up, B-Dawg?” as he goes by.

Caption Contest: What caption do you think would best fit this photo?

“Do you think it’s time that a government issued photo id should be required at
polling places to prove your identity before you vote? I believe so and it’s
something I’ve thought about for years. Currently the only verification would be
to check your signature and how it compares to the one on your registration
record. What prevents somebody from creating several identities and signing
registration cards with those fake names? he signatures would match. I doubt
that showing photo id to vote would be a hardship to anyone or discourage anyone
from voting.”

Yes, I agree, all citizens should be required to show ID every time they vote. How is this a bad idea?

Personally, I’d go even further and support a national ID card. Civil libertarians view this as essentially bar-coding people and a violation of rights, but I just don’t see it. A national ID card helps to alleviate a lot of other problems - not just voter fraud. Would you support a national ID card?

“People come here for timely, independent commentary on major political headlines and to see cool stuff.”

The word “independent” is under intense scrutiny and perhaps for good reason.

I’m an open-minded guy and willing to change it if that’s the overwhelming perception.

What are your suggestions? And try to keep it clean.

(Hat-tip to Porsche 993C4S and GPalmer for leading the charge)

This is what Sean Hannity considers a “reputable source.” This is where all of the rumors about Obama’s religion, place of birth, parents, etc came from. It ALL goes back to this guy (read the article). Great source, no?

From the New York Times:

An examination of legal documents and election filings, along with interviews with his acquaintances, revealed Mr. Martin, 62, to be a man with a history of scintillating if not always factual claims. He has left a trail of animosity — some of it provoked by anti-Jewish comments — among political leaders, lawyers and judges in three states over more than 30 years.

He is a law school graduate, but his admission to the Illinois bar was blocked in the 1970s after a psychiatric finding of “moderately severe character defect manifested by well-documented ideation with a paranoid flavor and a grandiose character.”

Sean Hannity is a primary source of news for millions of Americans.

Politico’s Carrie Budoff Brown casts doubt on Obama’s ability to actually do some of the things he’s proposing. She writes:

Over 21 months of campaigning, Obama has promised a new brand of government that would negotiate a health care plan on C-SPAN, require agencies to conduct business in public, and force lobbyist meetings into the open.

“I’m going to have all the negotiations around a big table,” Obama said in Virginia in August. “We’ll have doctors and nurses and hospital administrator. Insurance companies, drug companies – they’ll get a seat at the table, they just won’t be able to buy every chair. But what we’ll do is we’ll have the negotiations televised on C-SPAN, so that people can see who is making arguments on behalf of their constituents and who are making arguments on behalf of drug companies or the insurance companies.”

William A. Galston (former Clintonista and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution) raises his eyebrows:

Obama might rethink his some of open government pledges if elected, Galston said. On negotiating a health care plan on TV, Galston said “lots of luck.”

“At some point he is going to ask himself, ‘Would I be willing to have a certain conversation in public?’” he said. “If the answer is no, then he will have to ask himself if there are other people who don’t want to conduct their business in public. … These proposals are on the right track and if he is serious and persistent, he can make progress. But there are limits imposed by reality. Not all the people’s business can or should be conducted in public.”

Personally, I hope Obama has the will to follow-through on his promise of change or, as he claims, change you can believe in (i.e. real change). I don’t expect miracles from President Obama, but I do expect a drastically different direction and tone than the past 8 years. We need it now more than ever.

How much do you think he’ll actually be able to pull off?